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Copper up as China rate hike fears recede, LME stocks drop

Copper rose in morning trades as LME warehouse stocks declined for a fourth day running and as worries receded over possible rate hikes in China, where GDP data out yesterday showed rapid economic expansion in the first quarter.

The metal was also supported by the ongoing protest at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Grasberg, one of the world's largest copper and gold mines, is still operating, but well below capacity.

At 10.05 am, LME copper for three month delivery was quoted at 7,875 usd a tonne in SELECT electronic trades, up from a kerb close of 7,825 usd a tonne yesterday.

"Copper is taking a little bit of encouragement from the (LME) stock decline and rise in cancelled warrants, and also concerns are diminishing over China rate hikes," said Roy Carson, analyst at Triland Metals.

"The tone looks quite steady. Expect the copper market to try to revisit 8,000 usd a tonne later today."

The LME said in a daily report copper stocks held in its warehouses fell by another 1,150 tonnes to total 169,075 tonnes, while cancelled warrants – metal set to be removed from warehouses – rose to 19,250 tonnes.

The fall in inventory for a fourth day running took overall stocks to a four-month low and sparked concerns the market might tighten further, especially with still strong demand from China.

Chinese copper imports rose to record levels in March. Meanwhile, data out yesterday showed the Chinese economy grew by a larger than expected 11.1 pct in the first quarter.

The data sparked a sell-off in Chinese equities amid fears the Chinese authorities might raise rates in an attempt to curb the booming economy. Base metals prices also fell yesterday on the rate hike fears.

But BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams said the sell-off yesterday was more to do with profit taking and consolidation from recent peaks. Copper hit a 7-month high of 8,100 usd a tonne on Tuesday.

"Overall the markets seem to have taken the sell-off in Chinese equities as another excuse to take profits, but the follow-through weakness across global equities did not last," he said.

He added that while the metals might consolidate near term, "the overall picture is for further strength to unfold and China's GDP figure is probably the most bullish indicator we have had for a long time".

Aluminium was down at 2,830 usd a tonne against 2,845 usd, as the metal struggled to recover from a huge increase of nearly 12,000 tonnes in LME stocks yesterday.

Nickel was also lower, down at 47,400 usd a tonne against 47,525 usd.

Tin was up sharply, rising more than 2 pct to 13,730 usd a tonne as the metal recovered from sharp falls this week, which followed news Indonesia granted export permits PT Koba Tin, the country's second biggest producer.

The news indicated supply from Indonesia, the world's second largest tin producer, is recovering after having been disrupted for much of this year because of a government crackdown on illegal tin mining.

Zinc was up at 3,630 usd against 3,600 usd while lead rose to 1,950 usd against 1,930 usd.